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Florence has plenty of deep warm water to work with (note her “shadow” on the satellite’s SST analysis):
NE Puerto Rico buoy
for the upticks in east swell from tropical activity. Non-tropical open Atlantic Ocean lows and back-door frontal activity will be potential sources for NE swell late in the summer and early fall. Monitor the
south Hatteras buoy
for back-door frontal activity off the NC Outer Banks.
Atlantic Ocean Buoys (Current Conditions and Forecast)
NOAA’s Florida east coast offshore buoys for current conditions: St. Augustine , Fernandina Beach , Canaveral near shore and Canaveral east
St. Augustine buoy 7-day forecast for sea height forecast (primary swell):
Only White White Only Zoe Zoe xqfFgXw
Marine Page for SE Georgia/NE Florida
Upstream from Florida’s east coast in our ESE swell window, the
NE Bahamas buoy #41047
documents sea conditions, and this chart illustrates swell trends:
This map illustrates sea height analysis/forecast for the Atlantic Ocean just north of the northern Bahamas off the southeast Florida coast:
To monitor real-time wind speed/direction, here is the 10-meter wind (knots) and sea level pressure (mb) map for Florida:
This real-time sea height/period map has weather satellite overlay illustrating clouds associated with wave-generating weather systems:
This weather map illustrates surface pressure (mb), associated storm systems and fronts over the eastern CONUS and Atlantic Ocean:
GULF OF MEXICO & ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST COAST SST’s (as of August 25th)
PATCH (Potential for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes)
As the 2018 season approaches its September 10th climatological peak, forecasters are now suggesting below normal activity. The focus may be on areas close to home in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. CSU’s Dr. Klotzbach discusses tropical weather forecast in his Twitter feed.
While I believe the season will see near or slightly below normal activity, “me-gut” hankering was verified when it started early with activity close to home. Pre-season TS Alberto in May was followed by Chris, a system that formed near the Bahamas then became a strong re-curving hurricane east of Hatteras in June when the ample moisture feed out of the Caribean that accounted for Alberto and the early start to our season re-established. The GFS model (which accurately forecast Alberto over a week in advance) consistently suggested this, though it was a bullish outlier when compared to other models.
Me-gut was also correct in suggesting a quite second half of July and most of August. I believe the exceptionally quite period will end in early September when several strong tropical waves push off Africa into the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Atlantic will become favorable as these Cape Verde-origin systems make the long trek across the Atlantic during the historical peak of hurricane season activity in mid-September. Me-gut is also suggesting there may be late season activity favoring the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea late in September and extending into early October.
The NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion and the tropical western Atlantic satellite loop are good tools to monitor the Atlantic basin for activity.
Good links (updated regularly) to excellent private websites with forecast discussions monitoring tropical and non-tropical weather impacting Florida and the eastern US: Central Florida Hurricane Center and WeatherBELL
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Discussion
This section will be periodically evaluated and updated as Pacific Ocean sea temperature’s teleconnection (
with Florida’s weather (and waves) dictates during the fall/winter/spring when the ENSO influences on frontal activity occurs. Here is the link to
website to monitor the current and forecast for potential impacts.
Here is a useful link to the 7-day loop of sea height in the Atlantic Ocean (global perspective):
Here are a good link containing offshore (real and virtual) buoy forecasts:
What may lurk beneath our toes in the surf? Great White shark Katherine’s traveled along Florida’s east coast last winter. Here is the link to OCEARCH’s shark tracking page:
Questions, comments, cat-calls, kumquats and kudos (keep’em coming)…
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